Use case · FMCG / CPG

Trade Promotion Effectiveness OS

An operating layer that plans, funds, and settles trade promotions with governed agents — so every dollar of trade spend is traceable to lift.

Baseline IsolatorScenario ModelerCannibalization MapperDeduction ValidatorSpend Reconciler
The friction

Where value leaks today.

Trade promotion is the second-largest line on most CPG P&Ls and the least understood. Spend is committed across hundreds of retailer events through a fog of deductions, scan-down claims, and off-invoice allowances that nobody reconciles until quarter-end. By then, the question 'did this promotion pay back?' is answered with a shrug, because baseline volume, cannibalization, and forward-buy were never cleanly separated.

A TPM tool gives you a place to enter the plan and a workflow to route approvals. It does not tell you whether the plan is a good idea, catch the duplicate deduction, or learn that a given retailer's 'feature and display' rarely materializes. The analysis that would make trade spend smarter sits in a different system from the one that commits it, so the loop between planning a promotion and learning from it never closes.

Value leaks at both ends: money goes out on promotions that destroy margin, and money never comes back because invalid deductions go unchallenged. Adding software to enter promotions faster doesn't recover either dollar — it just digitizes the same blind spend. The fix is a system that reasons about effectiveness before the commitment and chases the settlement after it.

How it runs

One governed flow — agents act, you approve what matters.

Trade dollars flow to promotions with proven payback, and invalid deductions get disputed instead of absorbed — making the largest controllable line on the P&L legible.

kitsune os · trade-promotion-effectiveness-osrunning
01
Pull baselines
volume, margin, prior events
Agent
02
Model scenarios
lift vs. spend per tactic
Agent
03
Draft plan
rank events by payback
Agent
04 · gate
Authorize spend
RGM lead approves funding
Human
05
Execute & track
commit funds, monitor scan
Agent
06
Settle claims
validate and dispute deductions
Agent
Agent — autonomousHuman gate — your approval
What the OS runs

One operating layer — eight governed jobs.

Each is a governed agent inside the same system, sharing context — not eight tools you stitch together.

01

Baseline Isolator

Separates true incremental lift from baseline volume, forward-buy, and pantry-loading so promotion payback is measured against reality, not gross sales.

02

Scenario Modeler

Simulates lift, margin, and cannibalization across price points and tactics before money is committed, ranking events by expected return.

03

Cannibalization Mapper

Estimates how a promoted SKU steals from the rest of your portfolio so 'wins' that just shift volume aren't mistaken for growth.

04

Deduction Validator

Matches retailer deductions and scan-down claims against the agreed terms, flagging invalid or duplicate charges for dispute.

05

Spend Reconciler

Tracks committed versus actual trade spend in real time so accruals stay honest and overspend is caught mid-quarter, not after.

06

Compliance Checker

Confirms that contracted feature, display, and pricing actually ran at shelf using execution and POS signals before paying the claim.

07

Post-Event Learner

Writes the realized outcome of every promotion back into the planning model so each retailer and tactic gets smarter over time.

08

Funding Optimizer

Reallocates the trade budget toward the events and accounts with proven payback when funds are constrained or reshuffled mid-year.

Governed by design

Autonomy you can trust — because the control is built in.

The system acts on its own and every action stays legible, bounded, and reversible. You don't choose between speed and control; the control is what makes the speed safe.

Legible

See what was done, what was declined, and exactly what's waiting on you — nothing happens in a black box.

Bounded

Agents act only within the rules you set. Anything material or irreversible stops at a human gate.

Reversible

Every action is logged and undoable. A wrong turn is caught and rolled back, not discovered weeks later.

Owned

One operating system you own — not a swarm of rented agents you have to police. Built, run, accountable.

The outcome

Trade dollars flow to promotions with proven payback, and invalid deductions get disputed instead of absorbed — making the largest controllable line on the P&L legible.

End-to-endPlan to settlement
1 OSFunding and analysis joined
TraceableEvery trade dollar
Self-learningPer retailer and tactic
Questions, answered

What you're actually getting.

Is this a product or a build?

A build. Kitsune forges a trade-promotion operating layer around your accounts, terms, and deduction data — owned by you, not licensed per planner.

What stays in my control?

No trade funding is committed without an RGM lead's authorization. Agents model, rank, and draft the plan; humans approve the spend; agents then execute and chase settlement against that approved envelope.

How is this different from a TPM platform?

A TPM platform stores and routes promotions. This reasons about whether each promotion pays back before you fund it and disputes invalid deductions after — closing the loop a workflow tool leaves open.

Can it actually recover invalid deductions?

Yes. The Deduction Validator matches every claim against agreed terms and execution evidence, queuing invalid and duplicate charges for dispute instead of letting them silently erode margin.

How does it know if a promotion truly worked?

The Baseline Isolator strips out forward-buy and pantry-loading and the Cannibalization Mapper nets out portfolio theft, so reported lift reflects genuine incremental volume.

Bring us the bottleneck.

We'll forge the operating layer around your friction — built, owned, and running.